Well, it's a good thing science doesn't work by democracy. Cuz you guys have no idea what you're talking about.
(Sorry, I felt the need to start out with an aggressive statement)
We're all coming dangerously close to the perfect definition of insanity -- using the same methods, over and over, hoping for different results. I'm gonna give this at least one last go, and maybe I can phrase things differently, in a way that might catch one or two of your's attention.
Will it make you guys feel better if I admit that I used to feel the same way as you? You think I've got a closed mind on this subject. No, I once shared the EXACT same reasoning as you. Then, I got an education. I feel it is actually you guys who are being closed-minded to me. For just this post, open your thoughts, and consider the following.
Cracker, you have overlooked so many of my points, and you refuse to see it like it is. You refuse to see the sheer volume of the Universe, and you refuse to step outside the box even for a moment. All we know is here on our planet. And we are so often wrong Cracker. Things we thought we knew so well (well enough to kill and banish) have been retracted time and time again.
I'm not overlooking your points at all. In fact, I've addressed them directly. Your main point is "sheer volume". It's really not that difficult to think about a really, really, really big number. What you don't realize is that I'm also talking about a really, really, really big number. And dude, I have a very strong grasp on the basics of odds and probability.
If you flip a coin ten times, and it lands on heads ten times in a row, the odds are really good that it will come up tails on the next toss, right? I mean, what's the probability that you would toss eleven heads in a row? Very low. So, it's extremely likely that the next toss will be tails.
Of course you and I know that this is false logic. The coin has no memory. Every time you toss it, the probability of landing heads is 1/2. You could land 5,000,000,000,000,000 heads in a row. The probability of landing heads again will still be 1/2.
You say that the universe and time are infinite. Well, yes, and no, depending on how you mean.
Our physical universe - the one we live in - is definitely finite. There's no disagreement on this, in the scientific community. It's possible, perhaps, that there might be other universes beyond our universe, maybe even existing in another dimension or plane. I'm assuming you and I are both aware of the multi-verse theory, and for all we know, the number of existing universes could be infinite. But that has nothing to do with our conversation. We are talking about OUR universe, and it is absolutely finite.
Time, looking to the future, might very well be infinite. It might also be infinite, looking to the past (though, to be frank, I can't really wrap my brain around how it could be either finite OR infinite, looking to the past; weirds me out). The time that has passed since the Big Bang, however, is finite. 5,000,000,000,000,000 years from now, the amount of time that will have passed since the Big Bang will still be finite.
When we talk about genetic mutations, the possibilities are infinite. 5,000,000,000,000,000 genetic mutations from now, the possibilities will still be infinite. When you flip a coin, the probability of a desired result is 1-in-2. When you toss a regular six-sided die, it's 1-in-6. A regular deck of cards, 1-in-52.
How you calculate the probability of 1-in-infinity?
You see, M1chae1, my main point is DIRECTLY addressing your main point. "Random" doesn't have shades of grey. Something is either random, or it is not. When it is random, the possibilities are infinite. Infinity is a really, really, really big number. That's why I don't care how many galaxies exist. That really, really, really big number of galaxies is nothing, in comparison to infinity.
What you're doing, with your logic, is assuming that if you toss the dice of genetic mutation enough times, eventually, you'll land on those traits that are familiar to us. That is the same false logic I mentioned earlier. No matter how many times you toss those genetic-mutation-dice, with each new genetic mutation, the probability of landing a particular gene is 1-in-infinity.
The matter is further complicated by the fact of how many individual genes are needed to make up a genetic trait (the difference between a "trait" and a "gene" are important to this discussion -- wikipedia it if you don't already know). You're asking for a whole lot of coincidences.
I'm actually quite shocked that the schooling system on Evolution is teaching that similar life on other planets does not exists. It even seems they are teaching that all of the millions of life forms on our planet are utterly unique in all the Universe. That's shocking to me.
You've assumed too much. My education in Anthropology (in regards to our conversation) only taught me how to REALLY understand the process of evolution, in a way that most people JUST. DON'T. GET. I'm not familiar with any school of Anthropology that would discuss possible life on other planets. I've reached these conclusions on my own, and they're quite easy conclusions to reach. If you TRULY understand the process of evolution, the idea of a humanoid on another planet is absurd.
We have zero idea of how life evolves on other planets...but as mentioned above it's always adaptive. And if a planet is similar to ours, life will adapt in recognizable, similar ways (when I say recognizable, I'm taking *all* Earth's lifeforms into account...they are all unique and recognizable).
Why do you assume that what is recognizeable to us is the only way that something can be "adaptive"? Dude, humans have been on Earth 4 million years. That's a blink of the eye, in geological time. Anatomically modern Homo sapiens have been around 150,000 years. That's nothing. We have no idea how relatively "adaptive" our traits are going to turn out to be.
Your biggest false assumption is that evolution naturally leads to a particular end -- that it must end up with what is "adaptive". Your assumption couldn't be more wrong, because you're horribly mis-using that word. What is life on Earth going to look like in 1 million years? 1 billion years? 1 trillion years? We have no idea. It might not look anything like it does today. There might not be any humanoids.
Imagine a nuclear holocoaust. Life, in general will survive. Mammals will probably not. Whatever life-forms evolve as a result of post-apocolyptic environmental pressures will look very different from us. You use the word "adaptive" as if it is an absolute term, when it is, by definition, the complete opposite. At any given time, in any given environment, the organisms that exist in a biosphere are those that have adapted to live in THAT PARTICULAR environment. "Adaptive" = change.
All we know is here, yes, and we see what the Universe gives us based on our environments, and so we then must assume that similar environments will produce similar concepts of evolution. Just because another planet is given the spark of life, does not mean that the Universe will create entirely different structures for swimming, seeing, eating, feeling...there seems to be a pretty solid plan in place.
Oh boy. YOU assume that similar environments will produce similar "concepts of evolution". I don't make any such assumption. Nor would ANYONE with a relavent education in any biological science.
Evolution does not have a plan.
If you can concede that somewhere out there on another planet, a unique life form has developed that resembles, say, a bacterium, or a fish, or a sea cucumber...
I will concede nothing of the sort. Fish and sea cucumbers are complex life forms. Nothing exists like them on any other planet, anywhere in the universe. Bacteria, however, is rather simple. Similar life-forms are probably all over the place.
When we're discussing something as vast as the cosmos, you can't sling a four year degree at someone and use it to assert any kind of intellectual authority over the argument. Would you defer to an economist or a doctor just because of their degrees? Even Phd's can be dead wrong about a lot of things. Academia is full of misconceptions and fashions passing themselves off as fact. We can't even start discussing the subject if we don't begin with a clean slate and an admission that we are ALL groping in the dark and speculating wildly, credentials or not.
I'm not discussing anything as vast as the cosmos -- you guys are. I'm discussing the process of evolution, and that's something we've learned quite a bit about, right here on our own little planet. I am not groping in the dark, or speculating. I'm stating the fundamentals of Darwinian evolution. I don't need to think about the cosmos to understand that the biological conditions we have on Earth cannot be repeated. And I say that in absolute certainty.
Yes, I defer to economists and doctors all the time.
The Claw Theorem says that we must make our fictional aliens otherworldly, and the way to do that is to give them "lobster" claws. But, how can said lobster-clawed aliens climb up out of their primordial forests, or whatever the hell those folks have up in there, and make spaceships to fly to earth and cause science fiction mischief? How many movies have we seen in which technologically advanced aliens run around the galaxy with their lobster claws for hands, and we’re supposed to believe that they built spaceships and shoot ray guns? Or, they have hands with two or three scary looking fingers, each with enormous claws at their tips?
What the HELL are you talking about?! I didn't never say nothin about flying spaceships with claw-hands. You don't need to be able to fly a spaceship in order to exist.
Yes, life on other planets with different rules might very well be quite different. But, how different can those rules be? I'll bet not much. The laws of physics are the laws of physics, for example. And, however random mutations might be, the fact is that for species like ourselves, whatever random mutations that do occur, and, more importantly, are kept, had better be adaptive. For all I know, Cracker Funk, you're right about emphasizing the super duper randomness of mutations. But as far as the evolution of species go, the only mutations that really matter are those that are adaptive and are consequentially kept according to the law of the jungle and who successfully reproduces before they die. I would imagine that this would be true for both sexual and asexual reproduction.
The laws of physics are the same everywhere. The process of evolution would be the same everywhere (that's IF DNA even exists anywhere else). You are mis-using the word "adaptive" in the worst way. You are using that word to mean the exact opposite of what it actually means. I've already commented on this (very common) misperception, above. Think about it. What does "adaptive" really mean? Does it imply any sense of permanence?
That is natural selection. Natural Selection is what's important when you want to, as a science fiction creator, evolve, so to speak, an alien species on a planet like Pandora, who can have meaningful interactions with invading humans and thus drama commence. The meaningful interaction part is pretty important since the audience is a human audience, after all.
Oh, no, you did NOT just try to explain natural selection to me. I'm sorry, it's difficult for me to not sound condescending when I say the following -- I know you think you understand the concept, but you really don't. That doesn't make you stupid. That makes you normal.
You did, however, say something that I agree very strongly with. In order to draw the audience in, we need humanoid aliens. And that's why I'm more than willing to suspend my disbelief and pretend that it's possible for the Na'vi to exist.
Part of the reason why so many very earnest speculators about intelligent alien life forms make the assertion (assumption) that they must be so very different than us, I’m afraid, is because of some underlying idea that it's somehow unethical to think otherwise, as if to do so would be something like ethnocentrism, or terracentrism, if you will.
Uhh, no. I understand the process of evolution. That's why I feel quite secure in my position.
Back to my, and I think Wombat's, point, all we have for sure to go by is what we know for sure, which is based upon what we can actually observe and study --our own planet, our own biosphere, our own example of the tree of life, and the physics and the chemistry which is available to us to observe and work out.
EXACTLY! That's called science. And I'm trying my best to explain to you guys a scientific concept that you don't quite understand.
Let's not get hung up on things being "humanoid" or "hominid." Let's just consider it the "primate" configuration. This is what we know for sure: In the biosphere available for us to observe, the "monkey" or "primate" design has been very damn successful. It produced our species which has hands which can write, make flint tools, and maybe even build interstellar spaceships.
How do you define "successful"? By any reasonable measure of genetic success, humans (and primates) are nowhere near the top of the list. Not even close. There is nothing particularly "successful" about our species.
Sure, the Pandorans weren't building spaceships, but the point is that given just how successful and adaptive the primate "design" has been given the only perimeters of life that we can say for sure exist in this universe, it is perfectly reasonable to not be surprised if natural selection would come with something similar on an alien, but similar planet.
If there were a "design", your assumption would be perfectly reasonable.
There is no design.
Yes, it might be a stretch to have Pandorans and Clingans being just so very similar to our own species, but that's what suspension of disbelief is for! Anyways, wasn't there an episode of Next Generation that posed an explanation for why the Star Trek species were so similar... specifically, that they had all been seeded by someone else? An interesting topic in itself.
First of all, it's Klingon. Secondly, I'm right there with you on suspension of disbelief. I love Sci-Fi!
Yes, I saw that episode. It is one of the most horribly atrocious examples of fake made-up science ever. It was better when they left it unexplained. But then, they had to go and try to legitimatize it with the worst nonsensical crap I've ever seen. Holy crap, that episode was stupid.
Just have to say that ALL OF SCIENCE is a big group. Just from my life experiences I've learned that there are always "experts" on every side of a subject. I put experts in parenthesis because I think the term is relative. A good example of this would be Global Warming...there are "experts" on both sides who would swear on their mothers that they are right.
Thank God for the fact that science doesn't bow to your life experiences.
You've been listening to the wrong "experts". The real experts (notice the lack of quotations) are in full-agreement on the subject of global warming. There is no real dissent on this issue, in the scientific community.
Likewise, there is no dissent as to the existence of Darwinian evolution. The jury is not out. The debate has long ago been settled.
ROC made an argument in favor of intelligent design. Intelligent design is very non-scientific, and diametrically opposed to Darwinian evolution. It is religious philosophy, nothing more. I can safely say that ALL OF SCIENCE has settled on rejecting the thinly-veiled theistic arguments behind intelligent design.
Are you guys starting to get it? Have you figured out yet that my knowledge on this subject should not be so summarily discounted?