Thanks for the info!
HSX - Fantasy Football for Movie Nerds
- Thread starter Cracker Funk
- Start date
You bet. By the way, my entire $2mil was invested by 12:30, and that was with no research prior to midnight.
The tough part for any of you will be the relatively-steep learning-curve. But once you've got the system down, it's merely a matter of checking the right websites, and running a few quick numbers (as well as making your own predictions).
And for whatever it's worth, every single one of my investments is for a movie/star/derivative that will adjust in the next week.
The tough part for any of you will be the relatively-steep learning-curve. But once you've got the system down, it's merely a matter of checking the right websites, and running a few quick numbers (as well as making your own predictions).
And for whatever it's worth, every single one of my investments is for a movie/star/derivative that will adjust in the next week.
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Btw, what abt the wagers. I think we should put those up in the OP, who is betting what.
I'll offer post production services on a timelapse. I've been told my timelapses look decent enough. I can run your RAW images thru my PP process. Up to 20 secs long. That takes me about 4 hours.
Hope it's a reasonable wager. But if anyone thinks im good at something else and would like to suggest that as my wager, im open to it.
I'll offer post production services on a timelapse. I've been told my timelapses look decent enough. I can run your RAW images thru my PP process. Up to 20 secs long. That takes me about 4 hours.
Hope it's a reasonable wager. But if anyone thinks im good at something else and would like to suggest that as my wager, im open to it.
It is on!
I'm not gonna fall for your tricks, Broseph! Stocks is a mental game and I'm going with my gut.
I'm not gonna fall for your tricks, Broseph! Stocks is a mental game and I'm going with my gut.
I'm still trying to figure WTH is going on.
The numbers and charts don't geehaw.
So my mental game is 'awff'.
My guts are full of calorie dense non-nutritive 'food' and drink.
http://www.hsx.com/league/view.php?id=2520&msg=applied
The numbers and charts don't geehaw.
So my mental game is 'awff'.
My guts are full of calorie dense non-nutritive 'food' and drink.
http://www.hsx.com/league/view.php?id=2520&msg=applied
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What happened to Nick's app, btw?
IDWTH I was thinking when I didn't apply the following stunt to the Batman 3 options.
I max bought, went long, all the 'The Dark Knight Rises' (TDKR) $160m opening weekend calls possible, GAMBLING that TDKR will make $160 its opening weekend.
The Dark Knight Rises H$160 Call: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/BATM3.CA
You can see this call has done well because... well... TDKR is one of a few mega-block busters being released this summer.
You can kinda judge the interest in TDKR by the 'long' interest showed in its underlying security BATM3: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/BATM3
See that generally steady rise over the last year? That's a good thing.
Now, what I'm kicking myself in the head for NOT doing is shorting the BATM3 puts.
The Dark Knight Rises H$160 Put: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/BATM3.PU
The same date that I went long (bought) BATM3.CA I SHOULD HAVE sold short BATM3.PU and made some extra cash thattaways, but... like I said: IDKWTH I was thinking.
So, lettuce CONSIDER trying that with this week's two upcoming options IPO's on Wednesday:
http://www.hsx.com/calendar/
Each max call buy.
Each max put short.
$80.8k for a max doubles play.
$161.6k for both max doubles play
The interest in The Watch since the security IPOed May 29, 2009 has been positive, but has leveled off and become quite choppy in the last four months.
Hmm... IDK what to think about that. Not exactly confidence inspiring.
The calls are betting the opening weekend will bag $25m: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/NEIBW.CA
The puts are betting the opening weekend will not hit $25m: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/NEIBW.PU
Lettuce see how R rated Comedies have done this year for their opening weekends: http://www.imdb.com/genre/comedy
Ben Stiller movies tend to rate at least 3,100 screens, and the ensemble cast would be on par with the three >$25m opening weekend revenue R rated comedies this year.
$25m (The minimum the options are betting 'The Watch' will bring in opening weekend).
/ 3,100 theaters
= $8,064 per theater
Looks doable.
Go long (buy) the $25 Calls and sell short the $25 puts may be a decent play.
I won't expect these to tear @ss like the TDKR options did, but they should do fair to well.
Next up - Step Up Revolution, STUP4.
Don't know jack about this genre, but I really like how interest in the underlying just keeps plugging along upward: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/STUP4
'Step Up Revolution's options are betting opening weekend will bring in $10m.
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=similar&id=stepup4.htm
I think even with a notable drop off in revenue, if STUP4 can get into 2,400 theaters this could easily pull in $10m.
I feel better about this trade than about 'The Watch.'
Max buy STUP4.CA : http://www.hsx.com/security/view/STUP4.CA
Max short STUP4.PU : http://www.hsx.com/security/view/STUP4.PU
Also note that HSX has no stop loss orders, so you better be able to watch how these are going at least once a day.
If these start going against you it will chew up your HSX net worth PDQ.
I got burned holding onto Ice Age: Continental Drift H$65 Calls: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/ICEA4.CA
Happy trading!
PS, Next week I'll report a similar post on the following week's big releases with likely options available: http://www.hsx.com/security/feature.php?type=upcoming
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days and Total Recall, Aug 03, 2012
Good looking chart: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/WIMP3
Looks tricky: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/RECAL
I max bought, went long, all the 'The Dark Knight Rises' (TDKR) $160m opening weekend calls possible, GAMBLING that TDKR will make $160 its opening weekend.
The Dark Knight Rises H$160 Call: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/BATM3.CA
You can see this call has done well because... well... TDKR is one of a few mega-block busters being released this summer.
You can kinda judge the interest in TDKR by the 'long' interest showed in its underlying security BATM3: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/BATM3
See that generally steady rise over the last year? That's a good thing.
Now, what I'm kicking myself in the head for NOT doing is shorting the BATM3 puts.
The Dark Knight Rises H$160 Put: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/BATM3.PU
The same date that I went long (bought) BATM3.CA I SHOULD HAVE sold short BATM3.PU and made some extra cash thattaways, but... like I said: IDKWTH I was thinking.
So, lettuce CONSIDER trying that with this week's two upcoming options IPO's on Wednesday:
http://www.hsx.com/calendar/
- The Watch: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/NEIBW
- Step Up Revolution: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/STUP4
Each max call buy.
Each max put short.
$80.8k for a max doubles play.
$161.6k for both max doubles play
The interest in The Watch since the security IPOed May 29, 2009 has been positive, but has leveled off and become quite choppy in the last four months.
Hmm... IDK what to think about that. Not exactly confidence inspiring.
The calls are betting the opening weekend will bag $25m: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/NEIBW.CA
The puts are betting the opening weekend will not hit $25m: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/NEIBW.PU
Lettuce see how R rated Comedies have done this year for their opening weekends: http://www.imdb.com/genre/comedy
- $54,415,205 - Ted - 3,239 theaters
- $39,127,170 - Magic Mike - 2,930 theaters
- $36,302,612 - 21 Jump Street - 3,121 theaters
- $21,514,080 - American Reunion - 3,192 theaters
- $2,019,083 - Friends with Kids
- $21,051,363 - Project X
- $6,526,650 - Wanderlust
- $17,405,930 - This Means War
Ben Stiller movies tend to rate at least 3,100 screens, and the ensemble cast would be on par with the three >$25m opening weekend revenue R rated comedies this year.
$25m (The minimum the options are betting 'The Watch' will bring in opening weekend).
/ 3,100 theaters
= $8,064 per theater
Looks doable.
Go long (buy) the $25 Calls and sell short the $25 puts may be a decent play.
I won't expect these to tear @ss like the TDKR options did, but they should do fair to well.
Next up - Step Up Revolution, STUP4.
Don't know jack about this genre, but I really like how interest in the underlying just keeps plugging along upward: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/STUP4
'Step Up Revolution's options are betting opening weekend will bring in $10m.
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=similar&id=stepup4.htm
- $20,659,573 - Step Up - 2,467 theaters
- $18,908,826 - Step Up 2 the Streets - 2,470 theaters
- $7,138,266 - Katy Perry: Part of Me - 2,730 theaters
- $11,225,190 - Joyful Noise - 2,735 theaters
- $15,556,113 - Footloose (2011) - 3,549 theaters
- $5,961,231 - Glee The 3D Concert Movie - 2,040 theaters
- $29,514,054 - Justin Bieber: Never Say Never - 3,105 theaters
I think even with a notable drop off in revenue, if STUP4 can get into 2,400 theaters this could easily pull in $10m.
I feel better about this trade than about 'The Watch.'
Max buy STUP4.CA : http://www.hsx.com/security/view/STUP4.CA
Max short STUP4.PU : http://www.hsx.com/security/view/STUP4.PU
Also note that HSX has no stop loss orders, so you better be able to watch how these are going at least once a day.
If these start going against you it will chew up your HSX net worth PDQ.
I got burned holding onto Ice Age: Continental Drift H$65 Calls: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/ICEA4.CA
Happy trading!
PS, Next week I'll report a similar post on the following week's big releases with likely options available: http://www.hsx.com/security/feature.php?type=upcoming
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days and Total Recall, Aug 03, 2012
Good looking chart: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/WIMP3
Looks tricky: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/RECAL
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We have very different strategies. I like yours. Very different from mine, though. Will be interesting to see which one pans out, in the long run (I think they both will).
I knew you'd like this game. Cheers!
Trading on HSX is child's play compared to dealing with forex and Wall Street market manipulation.
I'll bet. I've never done the latter. Don't think I could handle it, to be honest.
There are some real gut wrenching moments when it's real money and small percentage moves up and down are equivalent to the month's pay of the average American.Nerves of adamantium, my friend.
And someone wake up Steve. http://www.hsx.com/profile/?uname=ZenSteve "Securities Held: 0"
He's just growing interest.
Lazy bum.
Hollywood inflation is going to eat your Hollywood interest gains!
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Anybody want 11-12% for a couple day's work?
The Avengers $520M Blockbuster Warrant AVNGR.BW cashing out Mon. 4p PT.
http://www.hsx.com/calendar/
Actual domestic box office oughtta be about $614M.
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=avengers11.htm
"... the Warrant will cash out at a price determined by the following formula: (Actual Box Office - Strike Price). If the film made $125 million, then the Warrant would cash out at H$25.00 ($125 - $100). "
$614M Est. Actual Box Office http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=avengers11.htm
- $520M Strike Price http://www.hsx.com/security/view/AVNGR.BW
= $94M difference between actual BO and strike
- $84 current cost http://www.hsx.com/security/view/AVNGR.BW
= $10M or 11.9% yield.
The Avengers $520M Blockbuster Warrant AVNGR.BW cashing out Mon. 4p PT.
http://www.hsx.com/calendar/
Actual domestic box office oughtta be about $614M.
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=avengers11.htm
"... the Warrant will cash out at a price determined by the following formula: (Actual Box Office - Strike Price). If the film made $125 million, then the Warrant would cash out at H$25.00 ($125 - $100). "
$614M Est. Actual Box Office http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=avengers11.htm
- $520M Strike Price http://www.hsx.com/security/view/AVNGR.BW
= $94M difference between actual BO and strike
- $84 current cost http://www.hsx.com/security/view/AVNGR.BW
= $10M or 11.9% yield.
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Congratulations, CF, on that monster move yesterday!!
Excellent!
IDK how you do it (twice, now!) with only a handful of investments. Truly impressive.
More options fun today - at least for me. http://www.hsx.com/calendar/
We have two films opening in a couple weekends: Total Recall, the remake, and DOAWK: Dog Days
Neither of these are expected to be blockbusters, but will likely be profitable - but that doesn't really matter.
Their puts and calls; H$2 a pop each.
- Total Recall H$40 Call (RECAL.CA)
- Total Recall H$40 Put (RECAL.PU)
- Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days H$15 Call (WIMP3.CA)
- Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days H$15 Put (WIMP3.PU)
Currently there are two options pairs running at HSX: Step Up Revolution & The Watch
http://www.hsx.com/security/list.php?id=3
Neither of these are expected to be blockbusters, either, while still being profitable. So the same market behavior for these may be true for TR & DOAWK options pairs.
Step Up Revolution H$10 Call http://www.hsx.com/security/view/STUP4.CA
- opening spike, stutter, slow rise.
Step Up Revolution H$10 Put http://www.hsx.com/security/view/STUP4.PU
- two day spike (surprisingly), fall off, then level
The Watch H$25 Call http://www.hsx.com/security/view/NEIBW.CA
- opening rise, falter, rise some more, and then a drop off. Doesn't make any sense. Film's clearly going to make more than $25m opening weekend. Whatevs.
The Watch H$25 Put http://www.hsx.com/security/view/NEIBW.PU
- two day opening rise, drop off, and then a monster spike. W.T.H? Stupid.
So, nonsensical hogwash aside, the first two days go long all options, puts and calls.
DOAWK I & II both made >$25m opening weekend, so $15m for # III ain't a stretch. Expect those puts to fall late the second day and certainly by the third.
Probably the same for TR.
You got all day to buy 'em @ H$2, so no rush.
GL!
PS, WAKE UP, STEVE! MAX BUY THE BRAVE WARRANTS http://www.hsx.com/security/view/BRAVE.BW
Excellent!
IDK how you do it (twice, now!) with only a handful of investments. Truly impressive.
More options fun today - at least for me. http://www.hsx.com/calendar/
We have two films opening in a couple weekends: Total Recall, the remake, and DOAWK: Dog Days
Neither of these are expected to be blockbusters, but will likely be profitable - but that doesn't really matter.
Their puts and calls; H$2 a pop each.
- Total Recall H$40 Call (RECAL.CA)
- Total Recall H$40 Put (RECAL.PU)
- Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days H$15 Call (WIMP3.CA)
- Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days H$15 Put (WIMP3.PU)
Currently there are two options pairs running at HSX: Step Up Revolution & The Watch
http://www.hsx.com/security/list.php?id=3
Neither of these are expected to be blockbusters, either, while still being profitable. So the same market behavior for these may be true for TR & DOAWK options pairs.
Step Up Revolution H$10 Call http://www.hsx.com/security/view/STUP4.CA
- opening spike, stutter, slow rise.
Step Up Revolution H$10 Put http://www.hsx.com/security/view/STUP4.PU
- two day spike (surprisingly), fall off, then level
The Watch H$25 Call http://www.hsx.com/security/view/NEIBW.CA
- opening rise, falter, rise some more, and then a drop off. Doesn't make any sense. Film's clearly going to make more than $25m opening weekend. Whatevs.
The Watch H$25 Put http://www.hsx.com/security/view/NEIBW.PU
- two day opening rise, drop off, and then a monster spike. W.T.H? Stupid.
So, nonsensical hogwash aside, the first two days go long all options, puts and calls.
DOAWK I & II both made >$25m opening weekend, so $15m for # III ain't a stretch. Expect those puts to fall late the second day and certainly by the third.
Probably the same for TR.
You got all day to buy 'em @ H$2, so no rush.
GL!
PS, WAKE UP, STEVE! MAX BUY THE BRAVE WARRANTS http://www.hsx.com/security/view/BRAVE.BW
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Ray, I agree with your assessment of Wimpy Kid, both the Call and the Opening Weekend. Seems like pretty much a no-brainer. Alas, all of my money is tied-up at the moment. Hopefully, those prices won't rise too much by next week.
I'm not sure how to feel about Total Recall. I personally am looking forward to it. But I just don't see much excitement over it. Honestly, I don't know what to expect -- I wouldn't be surprised if it raked-in $60mil opening weekend, or if it tanked and only made $25mil. Too much of a gamble for me.
I don't fully agree with your assessments of The Watch and Step Up. I'd share my thoughts, but...this is a competition.
I'm not sure how to feel about Total Recall. I personally am looking forward to it. But I just don't see much excitement over it. Honestly, I don't know what to expect -- I wouldn't be surprised if it raked-in $60mil opening weekend, or if it tanked and only made $25mil. Too much of a gamble for me.
I don't fully agree with your assessments of The Watch and Step Up. I'd share my thoughts, but...this is a competition.
Hehe. I was searching through threads I've started and was reminded of this one.
Public update: Ray mopped us up!!! It was competitive for a few weeks, and then Ray put the hammer down. In retrospect, I'm surprised stayed in the game as long as I did. Well played, Ray. Well played.
I owe you a DVD. Anything in particular you're looking for? Or should I just PM you my list? It's not particularly extensive, but some good stuff in there.
Public update: Ray mopped us up!!! It was competitive for a few weeks, and then Ray put the hammer down. In retrospect, I'm surprised stayed in the game as long as I did. Well played, Ray. Well played.
I owe you a DVD. Anything in particular you're looking for? Or should I just PM you my list? It's not particularly extensive, but some good stuff in there.
Ray is the mega-winner. I think I shall henceforth refer to him as Mega-Ray! 