How would a feature film like this fare in the box office?

[AmateurFilmmaker]

If a feature film was made from an original screenplay, was cast with unknown actors, and done independently, how well would it perform in the box office? Would it most likely bomb due to it's inherent obscurity outside of marketing/advertising used to promote the film? Fare well against feature films based on successful books? Depends?

I ask this because I want to know the likelihood of an original screenplay with unknown actors becoming a major success. I've seen feature films based on successful books --fame from the book-- and cast with unknown actors do well. Also I've seen feature films with big names and an original screenplay do well. Never have I seen an original screenplay with unknown actors do well, unless I don't know of the ones that have. Are they far and few in between if any? Many? What is your opinion on the matter?

 

[Aspiring Mogul]

I've asked this question to many industry insiders, and they say to expect to lose everything. But, you may be a small chance of hitting it big. IOW, it's like playing the lottery.

 

[WalterB]

Not a book and no big names: The Blair Witch Project
Hyped pretty effectively.

On the other hand: big names are not a garantuee for succes, nor is filming a popular book.
47 Ronin didn't do well enough to make a profit.
The very first attempt to bring The Lord of the Rings to the big screen wasn't very succesfull either. The second half was never made.

So, I guess you could say that you name some important parameters, but they are not the only parameters in the equation.

 

[directorik]

Never have I seen an original screenplay with unknown actors do well,

Using your criteria we have seen:
The Blair Witch Project
Primer
Clerks
Kids
El Mariachi
Napoleon Dynamite
Paranormal Activity
Slacker
Kill List
Another Earth
The Castle
Son of Rambow
Monsters

To name a few. Not all huge blockbusters but all did well and all
jumpstarted careers.


The very fact that you have never seen an original screenplay with
unknown actors do well shows that it's very, very rare. But it happens.
You know have a list of movies you need to see.

 

[Sweetie]

how well would it perform in the box office?

I think you're getting good information here from the other posters. How *WOULD* it perform is really difficult to tell.

Take the run away hit My Big Fat Greek Wedding. It's an example of how well a film with effectively no names can perform. Does that mean that every film without names performs that well? You tell me how many others you can find that also perform that well. You'll probably count them on one hand. Blair Witch Project, Paranormal Activity. I cannot think of any others. Anyone?

Now there are in the area of ten thousand movies made every year. So say in the last 20 years, 3 massive runaway hits from maybe two million movies made.

becoming a major success

What's your definition of success. Rik brings up a very interesting concept. If getting a career is what you call success, then that can happen. If you're hoping for a film that earns $5mil in the box office, with the right support, that can happen too. If you're looking at a $100mil box office smash, that's about a million to one shot. It can still happen.