I'm an amateur film-maker who's looking to get serious and start working his way towards making a festival level indie feature.
Keep making films. It's good to have high ambitions and dream, but the best thing you can do is go out, then write, shoot, and edit. Keep on creating work and improving. If you constantly are making films and improving, you're going to become more talented at your craft, refine your skills, and become more involved in the industry you are currently trying to break into right now. In addition to that, I recommend you go out and start meeting other filmmakers, cinematographers, sound people, colorists, editors, VFX artists, etc. Just keep on working away at your craft. Once you have talent and skill, begin investing in gear if it is necessary. I also recommend you keep studying, looking at threads, watching tutorials, reading books, then applying those techniques to your work. And sometimes, just test and experiment. I was reading how directors such as JJ Abrams and Richard Linklater would pull out a camera and try to mimic techniques from their favorite films to understand how certain shots and techniques evoke certain moods. In recent years, Film Riot and other filmmaking shows on the internet have started challenges for people to basically do the same - recreation of shots and scenes from the contestant's movies of choice. There are plenty of challenges and methods that can help you (in addition into just going out there and shooting) that can help you, including making incredibly short short films, no sound short films, Dogme95 films, films that have no dialogue, films that show inanimate objects showing emotion, etc. Once you begin to create quality work, you could always start working on music videos and advertisements if you wish. Another thing that could be potentially helpful to you early on is to become a PA on sets, or just hang around sets to see the good and bad of directors. Bring a notepad and take notes if you do so, those notes could be potentially helpful later. Really living and breathing the craft can significantly help you, and will often lead to improving and reaching the ambitions that you seem to want to meet.
I want to get into Sundance within the next 4 years.
Ok, you have a goal. Now set up a plan for that goal. Above I listen ways that people improve and reach goals such as goals, and so have others. Come up with a basic idea of how exactly you are going to be creating high quality work that is worthy of Sundance, and once you have done so, start working on that plan.
I've been shooting with a Nikon D5100 for the past couple of years. It's not great, but I've been able to learn a lot.
That's wonderful that you've been learning a lot. If you wish to go onto to making more high quality work, you may want to consider renting. It's cheaper and more convenient. See, the problem with buying is that (especially in the camera industry) technology evolves quickly. In a couple of months, a camera that is considered great now will become old news and people will fully lose interest in the camera and move onto the next big thing. The next big thing is an illusion, simply a visual trick done through advertising. Whatever camera that is the thing that you have to buy will eventually be forgotten about or will not receive the amount of attention that other similarly-made cameras get. I recommend you stick with the camera you have... mainly because of the reason I just gave you. Also due to the fact that there is fantastic footage of the camera that you are using out there, and the beautiful imagery that you commonly see from those cameras are not just the camera body themselves, but nice lenses, locations, lighting, and any other visual elements that contribute to a film looking filmic or 'good'. The camera you have is fine for now, and seeing the place you are in right now, I'd say to just stick with it.
I'm looking to upgrade my gear this summer.
This is a hard to answer question because I don't know what kind of film you are making, fictional or doc. I don't know the genre, and I don't know how you will be shooting the film(s). I only say that because gear is made to appeal to certain people, and while something could be useful to one person, it could be almost useless to another person. An Arri-Alexa probably won't suit a surfer, and a couple year old Go-Pro won't suit the acclaimed director that'll be releasing a wide-release science fiction VFX-laden thriller for a main camera. I'll try anyway. Okay, I'd say to count the camera out. Now you have a couple thousands to spend on something else. I'd recommend starting with a good tripod, preferably a Manfrotto, or my personal fav., the Ravelli 75mm bowl head AVTP. Then you can purchase a Glidecam if necessary. Then buy some lighting gear. I recommend you buy some LED panels from FloLight, although a 3-point Lowel lighting kit wouldn't be a bad option either. For audio, there have been plenty of threads. (
http://www.indietalk.com/showthread.php?t=49443). What I recommend you do yourself is identify the kind of film you are making and how you are making, and research the gear that gets the most favorable responses. Often times respected videographers, gear-heads, and filmmakers will have you covered when it comes to equipment reviews. Now, if you're going to be making a feature or slew of high quality short films, I recommend you instead rent and hire people to operate gear. It's cheaper, faster, and results in a being a product of higher quality.
I'm really intrigued by the GH4.
I recommend you NOT invest in the GH4. I say that because people have bought cameras thinking they have the next new thing, then a couple months later, a rival camera company comes out with a "better" product, which you want to buy, but are reluctant. That is shortly followed up by the camera company that created the camera that you bought releasing an even better idea. Often these better cameras are successful and appeal to you, because, well, they have glorious gimmicks that they rely on to survive. Currently, filmmakers are downright obsessed with 4K, something that isn't necessary and shouldn't be a part of the criteria that a filmmaker compiles when thinking about buying a camera over more important features that most filmmakers need. People are going to avoid the other unimpressive specs and glare in amazement at the thought of shooting in 4K. It's incredibly effective, and is why the camera and the many more to come will be successful.
Here's my opinion. Gear IS important because at the very least you need to be on a level playing field with other filmmakers (production-wise) to have a shot at the top tier festivals.
I respectfully disagree, although can see where you're coming from. The OP is looking to be on that playing field in the next 4 years and is currently just an amateur. As a beginning filmmaker, I think that it's important to work with crap gear. I'm not saying to submit to festivals with crap gear, but to start up with gear of lesser quality. Only because when starting out beginners and amateurs, filmmakers shouldn't be enamored and fixated upon how great gear is, and the many advantages of shooting in 4K, and the things that camera companies are doing right now that are really helping filmmakers. I think the best thing that can possibly be done is to just work with the most basic of cameras, with the essential functions that you need to get a half decent image. Then to your greatest ability, perfect your skills with that camera so that when you go onto working with nicer cameras, you have the ability to get the best image you possibly can with those more high quality devices.
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OP, I recommend you stick with the camera you have and instead polish your skills.