This is the reason that in the business they talk about "bankable" assets. So, if Sandra's Bullocks last three movies all turned profits, then she's a bankable asset... having her in the movie reduces the risk.
Exactly. And even then it means nothing.
1993’s Last Action Hero had Schwarzenegger at the top of his
popularity, was directed John Mctiernan who had just come off of
The Hunt for Red October, Die Hard and Predator and written by the
hottest writer of the time, Shane Black. He’s one of the few
screen writers people can name. It cost $85,000,000 (not
including P&A) and returned appx. $90,000,000. It only did about
$50,000,000 in the US.
Take a look at “Evan Almighty” Tom Shadyac had Bruce Almighty,
Liar Liar, The Nutty Professor and Ace Ventura: Pet Detective
under his belt. Steve Oedekerk had written three of those films.
Steve Carell was well know comedy actor after the success of The
40 Year Old Virgin, Little Miss Sunshine and The Office. Add
Morgan Freeman and a solid marketing campaign how could you go
wrong?
Yet it lost $88,000,000.
Now you could argue that you don’t like those movies so they don’t
fit your criteria of great director, great script and solid
marketing campaign. And clearly people didn’t like the movies. But
at the time, those directors and writers (and actors) were at the
top of being a bankable asset.
But people keep investing because every once in a while a Blair
Witch Project” or a Mad Max or a Super Size Me or a Night of the
Living Dead or a Rocky or a Once, or a Napoleon Dynamite comes
along.
So movie do make profits and sometimes they make huge profits. But
they are not an almost guaranteed good investment.