What do you think, boon or bane?

[Boz Uriel]

October 16th's New Yorker has an article in it called "The Formula" by Malcolm Gladwell. The log line is "What if you built a machine to predict hit movies?". Later in the article it becomes clear that all they need is a copy of the script in order to do it.

I can't/won't give you the whole article here but let me say it is very well written and I urge you to grab a copy.

They already predict hits in the music business. Check out a little consulting company in New York city named Platinum Blue. They've written a program that utilizes "spectral deconvolution software" that predicts if a song will be a hit or not before they release it. This is how Norah Jones got discovered.

The article tells the story of a group of men who do the same thing for movies. The two front men for the project are Dick Copaken and Nick Meaney. Their company is called Epagogix.

Take an arm full of scripts that passed the read test and pay to have them analyzed by Epagogix then throw away the trash and make the hits. They also claim that the software will tell you where a story is lacking and how to fix it. You'll still need a good writer to make it good but at least you know what direction to go in. All this from just a script.

My question to you is, as a writer, producer, director or studio exec, boon or bane?

 

[WideShot]

How can a machine determine snappy witty dialogue? How can a machine determine how well emotion is achieved? How can a machine determine subtext? How about how well a novel adaptation or a successful stageplay?

This goes along with the question, will we ever replace human actors with 3d ones? My answer is no, you cannot replace the human factor. Does a machine have a gut instinct? Would a machine have predicted Napoleon Dynamite or Sideways or Clerks? There are many things those scripts do wrong you know.

Besides, egos in Hollywood would never allow this to happen. Too many people's careers involved.

 

[Spatula]

Bullllllllshit!

If those computer geeks at Epagogix can write a code that predicts winners, why don't they just write a code that guestimates the lottery?

You never know until the end- a machine can't predict this industry- hell, even top industry people can't predict the industry.

If anything, it could check to make sure a script meets industry standards, and weigh keywords with a popularity database- but it still doesn't account for cultural shifts.

 

[oakstreetphotovideo]

I'm skeptical, but most of you knew that, already.

On the other hand, look at the predictable and cliche nature of most of what is coming out of Hollywood. I can see where you could determine the success of a typical, mainstream movie based on a set of metrics. I would think the formula would break down for niche movies and ground breaking movies. And then there is the question of how you measure success. Profitability is an obvious measure, but the big studios need to gross a lot of money, and, as a consequence, appeal to a wide audience of drones, to be profitable. An indie producer may turn a profit with less market penetration.

I'm with you, Wideshot. A computer is just a sophisticated calculator. It does not comprehend, reason, or feel. As a software developer, and a long time follower of AI, I am curious about the inner workings of this software.

 

[knightly]

Probably analyzes the verbs and adjectives for intensity.and slots them into the standard one page one minute structure to see if the numbers hit the right time frame throughout the movie.