news Oscars 2023: Best Picture Predictions

We will update these predictions throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2023 Oscar picks. Final voting is March 2 through 7, 2023. The 95th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 12 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

Our Awards Editor, TV & Film Marcus Jones joins Editor at Large Anne Thompson on the latest Oscars Predictions updates. See their previous thoughts on what to expect at the 95th Academy Awards here.

The State of the Race​

Announcing that any Academy Award nominee is a complete lock to win their category is asking for trouble, but besides 1995’s “Apollo 13” (which happens to have won the first SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture), every film that has won the top prize at the DGA, PGA, and SAG Awards has moved on to win the Oscar for Best Picture. Since “Everything Everywhere All at Once” recently scored that coveted hat-trick, and furthermore set a record for most film wins at the SAG Awards (four), another film winning Best Picture at the 95th Oscars would be a shock.

However, the A24 global hit ($107 million worldwide), which leads the Best Picture field with 11 nominations, has not taken home every Best Picture award it could have. Based on its woeful BAFTA performance (one win for Editing), it lacks wide support from the international voting bloc. Furthermore, many older Academy members are left scratching their heads after they see the raucous action comedy, which tends to play better to a younger audience.

Thus the film is still vulnerable. But no other film has gained as much support on so many fronts. So thanks to the preferential ballot, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” should prevail.

Also performing less well at the BAFTAs than expected was Martin McDonagh’s “The Banshees of Inisherin,” which unexpectedly lost Best Film and Director to Edward Berger’s Netflix entry “All Quiet on the Western Front.” Though support for it has eclipsed fellow European entry “Triangle of Sadness,” it’s unlikely that a German film without a Best Director nod is going to make a sudden push to grab Best Picture, the film is positioned, with nine Oscar nominations, to perform well across many craft categories, as well as Best International Feature Film.

“Banshees” is beloved by many, but the film also confuses people who don’t grasp its mythological Irish context, bloody digits and all. An Original Screenplay win is most likely for the Irish tragi-comedy. Also heading for a likely Screenplay win is Sarah Polley’s high-dive adaptation “Women Talking.”

Steven Spielberg may have to settle for a Best Director win for his personal film “The Fabelmans,” which still lurks as a Best Picture alternative for those who can’t stomach the chaos and violence of “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “The Banshees of Inisherin.” And Todd Field’s “TAR” is truly admired, even if Cate Blanchett’s commanding European orchestra conductor leaves many moviegoers cold. BAFTA winner Blanchett could mark the only win for Field’s tour-de-force — unless her SAG-winner rival Michelle Yeoh snags it.

There’s mainstream support for billion-dollar blockbuster sequels “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Avatar: The Way of Water” as well as Baz Luhrmann’s original smash “Elvis” ($280 million worldwide), which will divvy up some major craft wins.

Nominees are listed below in order of likelihood they will win.

“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“The Fabelmans”
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“Women Talking”
“Triangle of Sadness”