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affordable damage

Hi guys,
The Alvarta peaks $9 billions in US box office.
Consider $11 a ticket, that comes to 25% of US population
has watched the movie in theaters.

What was the average turn-out rate for an unsuccessful indie flicks, 1%, .2%, .3% population?
How do producers calculate the "affordable damage" in general?
Where is the threshold to drop from theater release to DVD release?

Thanks, and always learning'
 
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