Academics: Predicting a Script's Success

[Adeimantus]

So, some egghead college professors have written a paper which explains how to apply their mathematical formula to a script and that it will, invariably, predict how successful the resulting movie will be.

Original Paper here: http://library.constantcontact.com/doc205/1100387766214/doc/xPOvVu9tr17C7flq.pdf

NPR article on the paper and the eggheads here: http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2010...ulae-to-scripts-could-weed-out-hollywood-duds

A generalized condensation of their advice? Make a "Family Genre" or Comedy flick, and stay the hell away from horror films.

Cheers!

-Charles

 

[Ernest Worthing]

I havent checked the links but i dont understand how they can think that even if their scripts were successful, the movies will be as well. Great scripts can be poorly executed obviously.

 

[jeremy]

I havent checked the links but i dont understand how they can think that even if their scripts were successful, the movies will be as well. Great scripts can be poorly executed obviously.

I think it's a fairly reasonable assumption to make. Malcolm Gladwell wrote an article about this in 2004. I wrote to the company that provides this service and asked if it was the exclusive domain of studios and the confirmed that predicting a films potential revenue was contingent upon knowing that you were going to be marketed and cast in the manner that studio films are.

In terms of execution, I don't think that matters. Awful movies frequently do terrible, great movies frequently don't. High concept movies with noteworthy stars and good marketing almost always succeed.