We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 15 to June 26, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 12. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 17 and ends the night of August 28. Currently in limbo, the 75th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards were set to take place on Monday, September 18, and air live on FOX at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
See our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards here.
The State of the Race
As expected, every one of the nominees for Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special this year is a portrait of a public figure in the entertainment space. Even surprise nominee “My Transparent Life,” a rare Emmy nominee without a home network (the project was a VOD release now streaming for free on Tubi), centers on TikTok star Jesse Sullivan and celebrity makeup artist Stassi Kihm.
While the 2023 nominees were already up and running before “George Carlin’s American Dream” won the category last year, it is starting to look like a streak of these kinds of portrait projects are set to take over the category the next couple of years. HBO’s “Being Mary Tyler Moore” was a similar surprise nominee, both because it premiered so late in the season, and because there were other projects that had more involvement from their subjects (i.e. “Pretty Baby: Brooke Shields”). But in hindsight, of course a documentary about the seven-time Primetime Emmy winner would be of great interest to voters.
That history with the awards body definitely contributes to “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” (Apple TV+) being the current frontrunner. The Davis Guggenheim-helmed Sundance premiere is as much a story of how the five-time Emmy-winning actor changed television as it is about what Fox has done for research on Parkinson’s disease. Similarly, “Pamela: A Love Story” (Netflix) really chronicles how her television work helped make Pamela Anderson an icon, for better or worse, and even provides first-hand commentary on “Pam and Tommy,” a series about one of the most difficult parts of her life that was Emmy-nominated last year.
“Judy Blume Forever” (Prime Video), another Sundance premiere, is the one nominee with the least commentary on television, but manages to still be very of the moment in what it has to say about censorship, while still being heartrendingly nostalgic.
Predicted Nominees:
“If These Walls Could Sing” (Disney+)
“Judy Blume Forever” (Prime Video)
“Pamela: A Love Story” (Netflix)
“Pretty Baby: Brooke Shields” (Hulu)
“Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” (Apple TV+)
Power Rankings:
- “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” (Apple TV+)
- “Judy Blume Forever” (Prime Video)
- “Being Mary Tyler Moore” (HBO)
- “Pamela: A Love Story” (Netflix)
- “My Transparent Life” (Prime Video)
Will Win: “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie”
Could Win: “Judy Blume Forever”
Should Win: “Judy Blume Forever”
More Category Predictions:
Outstanding Animated Program
Outstanding Talk Series
Outstanding Scripted Variety Series
Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series
To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 75th Emmy Awards click here.
Last Year’s Winner: “George Carlin’s American Dream”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Judd Apatow’s George Carlin documentary started what could be a new winning streak for HBO in the category (the last one was from 2018 through 2020). This year, the premium cable network has a similarly promising contender in “Being Mary Tyler Moore.”
Notable Ineligible Series: “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” (ineligible as a 2023 Oscar nominee); “All That Breathes” (ineligible as a 2023 Oscar nominee); “Fire of Love” (ineligible as a 2023 Oscar nominee)