Nice article. I'm horrible at predicting nominees, so I won't even try. A couple comments, though:
I'm not seeing the same as everyone else, with Patton Oswald. I thought his performance was pretty good, but Oscar-worthy?
I think Nolte was excellent in "Warrior". Nice comeback for him.
I agree with your assessment of McCarthy. She deserves a nomination, but won't get one. She really stole the show, in what was an excellent movie, with an all-around terrific cast.
You really think Micheal Shannon will get left out? That'd be a shame. His was the best performance I've seen, so far (though I haven't seen all of those movies you mentioned).
No love for Andy Serkis? My hatred for the academy will grow even larger, if they don't at least throw him a bone with a very-well-deserved nomination.
I loved Mara in Dragon Tattoo, though my opinion ain't worth much, as I haven't seen at least half of those other movies you mentioned.
As for Best Picture noms, I'm not jumping on the Hugo bandwagon. I'm sorry, but I just didn't think it was all that incredible. My honest opinion is that it's getting a lot of attention because it's almost masturbatory for filmmakers to watch it. But the narrative is stilted, and the resolution just didn't really connect with me on an emotional level.
I'd love to see Midnight in Paris get a nomination. Though I loved Bridesmaids, I think Midnight in Paris is more deserving to be the token comedy nominee.
I'd also like to see them start recognizing blockbusters, with a token nominee. I think they went too far when they upped the number to a minimum of 10 nominees, but I do think movies like Abram's Star Trek are deserving of a nomination, just for being downright entertaining. This year, I think Apes deserves a nomination. It's just too fun of a movie to ignore, and surprisingly intelligent and emotionally real.