It’s a tough call. I have heard you’ll have a tougher time submitting a feature cold, but not so much for shorts. A Sundance programmer once said of the eighty or so shorts they program, maybe half are good, and then the rest are just filling the left over open slots. That’s out of the five thousand or so they get a year –
maybe forty are actually good.
As for features…
A friend of mine spent an entire year submitting
this feature doc to film festivals and getting rejected. Then Fantastic Fest let them in, they got some great reviews, and they were off. They spent the next year getting into one after another until they not only stopped paying any fees, but stopped submitting all together. They are now approached and paid to show their movie in a festival. But, they’ll be the first one’s to tell you to never submit your feature cold. Get to know somebody.
I have other friends who spent two or three years submitting their features cold and maybe saw it play in one tiny unheard-of festival.
It’s a toss up and when you think about how many programmers need to agree your movie is above and beyond all the other thousands of films they’ve watched in the past two months, it’s actually pretty amazing anyone gets in at all.
That said, forget festivals. Just focus on making your movie the best it can be. Figure out what you personally think are impossible standards to measure yourself against and aim higher. If that means putting your movie next to the past ten Oscar winners, then that’s what you need to do. There’s a reason Sundance can only find forty decent short films out of five thousand; people don’t hold their work to any standards higher than their friend’s and family’s chuckles. Then they complain the only reason they didn’t get into the bigger fests is because they didn’t know the right people or whatever.