We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 15 to June 26, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will be presented over two consecutive nights on Saturday, September 9 and Sunday, September 10, with an edited presentation of the ceremonies to be broadcast on FXX at a later date. Finally, the 75th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards take place on Monday, September 18, and air live on FOX at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
See our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards here.
The State of the Race
This year’s Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series race serves as an example for what little room HBO leaves for other networks in these categories. Even with Kieran Culkin, a two-time nominee here moving up to Lead Actor, there will still likely be even more “Succession” stars making the cut, with both Alan Ruck and Alexander Skarsgård standing out in the show’s final run of episodes. Not to mention what the conclusion of “Succession” does for Nicholas Braun and last year’s winner Matthew Macfadyen. All actors seem like safe bets for this category, with the latter contender likely nabbing a second Emmy in a row.
As far as who else makes it in, “The White Lotus” has the next tier of contenders, with F. Murray Abraham leading the pack based on the show’s winter awards run. However, it is hard to say the Oscar winner had much of an impact on the story arcs of the Sicily-set series. If critics had a say, other “The White Lotus” stars like Will Sharpe, Tom Hollander, Michael Imperioli and/or Theo James would have a greater fighting chance, but often the most prestige name catches the eye of voters (think of Christopher Walken getting into the category last year over most of his co-stars that were more central to the “Severance” story).
That is likely why John Lithgow is high up on Emmy nomination prediction lists. “The Old Man” star won this specific category in 2017 for “The Crown,” and was nominated again in 2021 for “Perry Mason,” so voters are proven to follow whatever TV role the two-time Oscar nominee takes on. That said, he would likely be the sole representative for his show the same way Matt Smith is poised to be the only “House of the Dragon” star most likely making it in.
Finally, “Better Call Saul” has done well in the nominations department, but has not received a single Emmy, so it seems safe to only include Giancarlo Esposito in predicted nominees, though he is often joined by co-star Jonathan Banks in the category. It all depends on how much the TV Academy is eager to recognize the AMC show’s final season.
Predicted Nominees:
F. Murray Abraham, “The White Lotus” (HBO)
Nicholas Braun, “Succession” (HBO)
Giancarlo Esposito, “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
John Lithgow, “The Old Man” (FX)
Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession” (HBO)
Alan Ruck, “Succession” (HBO)
Alexander Skarsgård, “Succession” (HBO)
Matt Smith, “House of the Dragon” (HBO)
Contenders:
Jonathan Banks, “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
Tom Hollander, “The White Lotus” (HBO)
Will Sharpe, “The White Lotus” (HBO)
In a Perfect World:
Ismael Cruz Córdova, “Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Prime Video)
Theo James, “The White Lotus” (HBO)
Ken Leung, “Industry” (HBO)
To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 75th Emmy Awards click here.
Last Year’s Winner: Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession”
Still Eligible: Yes.
Hot Streak: Not really any possible streaks outside of Macfadyen maybe winning a second year in a row for “Succession.”
Notable Ineligible Series: John Turturro and Christopher Walken, “Severance” (Season 2 was not eligible); Oh Young-soo, “Squid Game” (Season 2 was not eligible); Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Season 3 was not eligible)