2014 Oscars

12 Years a Slave is going to take Best Picture, with Gravity not far behind.
DiCaprio or Bale are going to get best actor.
Blanchett or Adams will win best actress.
Leto will win best supporting actor.
Jennifer Lawrence will win best supporting actress
Frozen will probably win best animated feature.
Gravity will probably take the award for cinematography.
Hustle or Gatsby win for costume design.
Cuaron or McQueen win best director.
Gravity wins it for editing.
The Great Beauty probably wins for best foreign language film.
Dallas Buyer's Club probably wins Best Makeup and Hair.
Saving Mr. Banks or Book Thief (probably Book Thief) win best soundtrack.
Best Original Song is "Ordinary Love" from Mandela: A Long Walk to Freedom.
Production Design will probably be American Hustle or Gravity
Sound editing, mixing, and VFX go to Gravity.
Adapted screenplay goes to 12 Years or Wolf of Wall Street.
American Hustle wins best original screenplay.
 
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I actually think you're gonna be wrong on almost all of those CPF. I suspect you are underestimating 12 Years a Slave, presumably because you haven't seen it (?).

12 Years a Slave is going to win Best Picture, I think that's pretty much a lock. Gravity is the only other one that has a shot.

I think Alfonso Cuaron will pick up Best Director though.

The lead actors are going to be Blanchett and either DiCaprio of Ejiofer. I'm leaning towards Ejiofer at the moment.

Supporting actors will probably be Jared Leto and Lupita Nyong'o.

American Hustle feels like it's in pretty much the same shape as Silver Linings Playbook this time last year, with a whole host of nominations. But I don't think it's going to take home any of the major prizes (will probably get Original Screenplay)- Jennifer Lawrence is probably their best shot, but she won last year and, frankly, Lupita Nyong'o performance is on another level.
 
I actually think you're gonna be wrong on almost all of those CPF. I suspect you are underestimating 12 Years a Slave, presumably because you haven't seen it (?).

My opinions about the Oscars change all the time. I think both Gravity and 12 Years a Slave have a chance. But seeing the amount of Oscars Gravity is winning will probably result in 12 Years winning best picture. I hope 12 Years wins, I really do (McQueen is one of my favorite directors ever).

12 Years a Slave is going to win Best Picture, I think that's pretty much a lock. Gravity is the only other one that has a shot.

Most likely.

I think Alfonso Cuaron will pick up Best Director though.

Agreed. In this case, 12 Years has a great chance, most likely a winner

The lead actors are going to be Blanchett and either DiCaprio of Ejiofer. I'm leaning towards Ejiofer at the moment.

I hope Blanchett wins. I LOOOOOVVVEEED Blue Jasmine. I have a feeling DiCaprio's going to be winning it. I think Bale has a better chance that Ejiofer.

Supporting actors will probably be Jared Leto and Lupita Nyong'o.

American Hustle feels like it's in pretty much the same shape as Silver Linings Playbook this time last year, with a whole host of nominations. But I don't think it's going to take home any of the major prizes (will probably get Original Screenplay)- Jennifer Lawrence is probably their best shot, but she won last year and, frankly, Lupita Nyong'o performance is on another level.

Yep. Leto is probably going to take it.
Jennifer Lawrence got a lot of attention for her performance. I'll not 100% sure of who will win, but I have a feeling it will be her.
 
I'm still working my way through the nominees. So I'm gonna hold off on my picks until I see the rest.

I will say I was disappointed to see Emma Thompson left out, but it does seem like a pretty competitive field this year, so I guess there's that.
 
Sound Mixing and Editing

Gravity. Hands down.

You may be surprised. Both "The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug" and "Lone Survivor" have a very real shot. However, you're probably right; "Gravity" was something very special in Dolby Atmos.


The AMPAS Awards - the Oscars - have gotten extremely political over the years. I think that what irks me the most was the discontinuation of the audio bake-off prior to the Academy Awards several years ago. A very large percentage of the Supervising Sound Editors, Sound Designers and Re-Recording Mixers would get together to screen the Sound Editing and Sound Mixing nominees and select the Oscar winner. It was also an opportunity for the sound community to get together every year. At least the Oscars for Sound Editing and Sound Mixing were selected by their peer group.
 
The AMPAS Awards - the Oscars - have gotten extremely political over the years. I think that what irks me the most was the discontinuation of the audio bake-off prior to the Academy Awards several years ago. A very large percentage of the Supervising Sound Editors, Sound Designers and Re-Recording Mixers would get together to screen the Sound Editing and Sound Mixing nominees and select the Oscar winner. It was also an opportunity for the sound community to get together every year. At least the Oscars for Sound Editing and Sound Mixing were selected by their peer group.

Surely months of high-level campaigning to your friends is better, right...? ;)

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My picks:

Writing Original Screenplay
American Hustle (though Her might have a good chance) - American Hustle was based on a true story, so you have to wonder if it should really be placed under Adapted Screenplay..

Writing Adapted Screenplay
12 Years A Slave or Wolf of Wall St

VFX
Gravity

Sound Mixing
Gravity - I don't really know who'll get SOund Editing.

Production Design
American Hustle

Original Song
Haven't heard all of them, but one would have to assume Ordinary Love from Mandela

Original Score
Any of these could be a shoe-in to be honest, and I'd probably be happy with any.

Make-Up and Hair
American Hustle. What's that ? It's not nominated? Oh.. In that case.. I don't know. Maybe Dallas Buyer's Club.

Directing
Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity. I get the feeling this might depend on who gets Best Picture. I feel like Cuaron will get Best Directo, and then 12 Years A Slave will get Best Picture. Either way, I find it unlikely that Best Direction and Best Picture will be for the same movie.

Costume
American Hustle

Cinematography
Gravity.
I'd like to see Deakins finally win, but I don't think Prisoners was strong enough in comparison to the competition. Honestly, I haven't seen a lot of these movies, but I'm still going with Gravity - the Academy seem to like giving 90% VFX films the Cinematography award (that's not to downplay Lubezki's contribution, however).

Animated Feature
Frozen.
I could see The Wind Rises or Ernest & Celine winning, but I'm still going with Frozen

Supporting Actress
Jeniffer Lawrence.
Hollywood thinks she's the second coming. Personally, I don't understand the fascination.

Supporting Actor
Anyone except Barkhad Abdi.
Personally, I think it would be awesome to see Barkhad win, but I just don't think it will happen.

Actress
Sandra Bullock
Strong competition, though I think Sandra will win out. I think Amy Adams is least likely to win here

Actor
Tom Hanks. Wait, what? He wasn't nominated? Er... Okay... In that case... Chiwetel Ejiofor

Or maybe Christian Bale (though I hope not)

Best Picture
12 Years A Slave. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if 12 Years a Slave wins everything. I haven't seen the movie, and I'm sure it' good, but man they've campaigned hard for this movie, and it sure is an Oscars type film..
 
I hope Gravity doesn't win anything other than technical. Nothing against anyone, but I just felt it was Sandra Bullock and George Clooney in space. Playing themselves, as if they were in space. I really wish they had used unknown actors. IMO.
 
I hope Gravity doesn't win anything other than technical. Nothing against anyone, but I just felt it was Sandra Bullock and George Clooney in space. Playing themselves, as if they were in space. I really wish they had used unknown actors. IMO.

I think Sandra Bullock's performance is pretty amazing, because, even if she is just playing herself, she's still doing an amazing job of seeming plausible in a circumstance that is very difficult for us to even imagine.

Additionally, if you watch the BTS for Gravity, you'll see just how tough it was for the actors. An amazing physical performance.

Still, don't worry, Blanchett is going to win.
 
I dunno, I watched While You Were Sleeping a couple of weeks ago and it looked and felt like the same Sandra Bullock. Let's agree to disagree.

I haven't seen Blue Jasmine yet, but really want to. I have a feeling it's going to be good.
 
I haven't seen Blue Jasmine yet, but really want to. I have a feeling it's going to be good.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Jasmine

Yecht!
smileyPuking[1].gif

Looks insufferably miserable to me.

Different strokes...
 
Oh, well, then...

Looks like you and Mara have a good thing to share notes on! :lol:

I s'pose you guys also liked 'Blue Valentine', 'The Place Beyond The Pines', et al, and are hankerin' to see 'Out of the Furnace' if you guys haven't already. :)

Not my addrenaline junkie can O' worms. :)
 
Love Blue Valentine :)
Pines....eh...so so
Not haven't seen Furnace yet.
I thought Saving Mr. Banks was very good - Emma Thompson 's character was a stand-in for every non-compromising writer I've ever known.
 
Loved Blue Jasmine, Place Beyond the Pines, and Blue Valentine.

Not sure about Out of the Furnace.

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Just saw 12 Years a Slave.
Wow.
Words cannot express.
 
Let's see... what other "dysfunction as entertainment" films can we think of... ?
Don Jon
Dead Man Down
Crystal Fairy and the Magical Cactus
The Lifeguard
Magic Mike
Killing Them Softly - I actually liked enough to hunt down the director's other film The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. Gorgeous film.
Meek's Cutoff - If feel like a Michelle Williams mini-fest!
The Last Waltz
Jeff Who Lives At Home
Flight
Killer Joe
Silver Linings Playbook
The Dilemma
Beautiful Boy
Like Crazy
The Art of Getting By
Our Idiot Brother
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
The Ledge
Son of No One
Rampart
 
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