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I actually think you're gonna be wrong on almost all of those CPF. I suspect you are underestimating 12 Years a Slave, presumably because you haven't seen it (?).
12 Years a Slave is going to win Best Picture, I think that's pretty much a lock. Gravity is the only other one that has a shot.
I think Alfonso Cuaron will pick up Best Director though.
The lead actors are going to be Blanchett and either DiCaprio of Ejiofer. I'm leaning towards Ejiofer at the moment.
Supporting actors will probably be Jared Leto and Lupita Nyong'o.
American Hustle feels like it's in pretty much the same shape as Silver Linings Playbook this time last year, with a whole host of nominations. But I don't think it's going to take home any of the major prizes (will probably get Original Screenplay)- Jennifer Lawrence is probably their best shot, but she won last year and, frankly, Lupita Nyong'o performance is on another level.
Sound Mixing and Editing
Gravity. Hands down.
The AMPAS Awards - the Oscars - have gotten extremely political over the years. I think that what irks me the most was the discontinuation of the audio bake-off prior to the Academy Awards several years ago. A very large percentage of the Supervising Sound Editors, Sound Designers and Re-Recording Mixers would get together to screen the Sound Editing and Sound Mixing nominees and select the Oscar winner. It was also an opportunity for the sound community to get together every year. At least the Oscars for Sound Editing and Sound Mixing were selected by their peer group.
I hope Gravity doesn't win anything other than technical. Nothing against anyone, but I just felt it was Sandra Bullock and George Clooney in space. Playing themselves, as if they were in space. I really wish they had used unknown actors. IMO.
Still, don't worry, Blanchett is going to win.
DiCaprio or Bale are going to get best actor.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_JasmineI haven't seen Blue Jasmine yet, but really want to. I have a feeling it's going to be good.
Looks insufferably miserable to me.